🔗 Share this article

Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the country and caused turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.

That represents the warning from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Structures Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."

New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.

Absence of Serious Debate

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.

"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in universities but very few politicians or campaigners want to engage with even the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, no writer supports unification or the status quo. Each writes two pieces that aim for objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Arguments cover identity markers, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist valid points on either side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.

Probability of Referendum

The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has possesses important lessons to gain from the alternative arguments."

Request for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster should participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."