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On Sunday, the Central African Republic will hold a significant series of four votes, encompassing the presidential race, national assembly, and local positions.

A Competitive Presidential Field

A field of seven contenders are vying for the top office, including former prime ministers Anicet Georges Dologuélé and Henri-Marie Dondra. Both men were given approval to stand by the high court after being initially barred. Dologuélé finished second in the last two elections, while Dondra briefly served under the current president.

Opposition Hopes and Public Discontent

The opposition aims to capitalize on widespread frustration in a nation where violence remains a daily reality. Over half a million people are internally displaced, with a comparable figure living as exiles in neighbouring countries.

"This is an opportunity to commend the significant progress of the country," said a senior UN diplomat, though he added that challenges remain.

The Incumbent's Path

Despite the competition, President Faustin-Archange Touadéra, a former mathematics professor, is widely expected to secure another term. He first entered politics in 2008 when appointed prime minister, serving until a rebel coalition overthrew the government in 2013, triggering a sectarian conflict.

After a turbulent three-year interim, his perceived impartiality from the warring factions powered his second-round victory in 2016.

Election Risks and Voting Challenges

There are fears that supply-chain issues and violence could disrupt the electoral process, particularly in rural areas. The UN peacekeeping mission, Minusca, is providing security and logistical support that the country's weak systems cannot manage.

Further issues include the voter list being made available only digitally, a significant barrier in a nation with limited internet access. These irregularities have led to an opposition boycott and could, according to observers, "exclude many of the population."

Implications of Extended Rule

Many citizens fear that another term for Touadéra—made possible by a 2023 constitutional referendum that abolished term limits and lengthened mandates—would entail greater influence for foreign actors.

The president has relied on the Russian mercenary group Wagner for his protection, and despite its founder's death, has pushed back against calls to integrate its fighters into a successor entity. Meanwhile, Rwanda has taken a different approach, focusing on business interests within CAR.

Claims of National Disposal

Recent reports have claimed the government evicted its own soldiers from a World Bank-funded facility to make way for a Rwandan agricultural project. A pro-opposition editorial accused the leadership of being "intent on dispose of the country bit by bit."

Amid a newly signed agreement with rebel groups offering hope of stabilization, the election moves forward under a cloud of uncertainty and geopolitical competition.