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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that proposals for a ceasefire agreement negotiated with American diplomats are poised to be finalised in a matter of days. Afterward, American envoys are expected to submit the documentation to the Russian leadership.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Major Headway, With Critical Obstacles Remain

After two days of discussions in Berlin, US officials reported on Monday that approximately “90%” of the contentious issues between Russia and Ukraine had been settled. Despite this optimistic assessment, the path to ending the war is not guaranteed, especially given Russia's lack of participation from the ongoing discussions.

Early Tuesday morning, the Ukrainian president noted that the American legislature was anticipated to consider security guarantees and that a finalised set of agreements could be prepared “imminently.” He added that, the United States would hold consultations with Moscow, potentially followed by high-level meetings as soon as this weekend.

Security Guarantees and International Support

“We are counting on five key agreements. Some of them concern binding security pledges: legally binding, that is, approved and endorsed by the US Congress,” Zelenskyy remarked to the press. He clarified that these guarantees would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

On Monday, American representatives declined to give specific details regarding the likely contents of the defense package or what would happen if Moscow attempted to seize more land after a peace deal. They did, however, confirm that the U.S. does not intend to deploy troops on the ground in the country.

Leaders from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and eight other European countries said in a unified declaration that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “help with the regeneration of Ukraine’s forces, in securing Ukraine’s skies, and in supporting maritime security, potentially by conducting operations within Ukraine.”

However, they did not suggesting these measures would serve as guarantees equivalent to NATO's Article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Moscow is anywhere close to agreeing to the kind of arrangement being negotiated between Washington and Kyiv.

Kremlin Response and Land Issue

On Tuesday, the Russian government stated it had not seen the specifics of the plans for security guarantees. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergei Ryabkov, asserted that the country would never accept troops from NATO member states being stationed in Ukraine “no matter what.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian negotiators and their American counterparts continues to be the territorial question. One proposal centers on Ukraine relinquishing the parts of the Donbas it still holds, while Ukraine wants to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the territorial issue. As is known, it is a central problem. At this point, there is no agreement on it yet,” the president said after the Berlin talks.

The US negotiation team, led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has proposed a compromise solution. This framework would see Ukraine withdraw, but Russia would not move forward, with the resulting zone established as “an open economic area.” Russia has indicated it could use internal security formations rather than the military in such an area, implying it would still seek to control the territory.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘free economic zone’ does not mean under the control of Russia. Not legally or in practice do we accept the Donbas region – its currently occupied areas – as belonging to Russia. Categorically,” stated President Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Possible Scenarios

The way ahead is uncertain how Moscow and Kyiv will proceed on the territorial issue. The Ukrainian leader has earlier mentioned that a compromise solution like a special economic area could be theoretically possible if the citizens of Ukraine voted for it in a referendum. The major impediment is likely to be when the plans are put to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has given no sign he is willing to compromise on his military objectives.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will end up with exactly what we are experiencing on our plane right now – instability,” said Zelenskyy, making the statement after his plane took off from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will apply sanctions pressure and provide us with additional armaments if they reject the deal. In my view, that would be a reasonable expectation from us to the Americans,” he concluded.