Keir Starmer's Backers Launch 'Halt Andy Burnham' Effort to Thwart Mayor's Commons Comeback

Key supporters of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly set in motion a coordinated effort to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a return to the House of Commons. This action comes after the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has sparked an impending by-election.

Major Hurdles in the Selection Process

A number of members on the Labour Party's powerful NEC have reportedly suggested it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection procedure. This is primarily due to the sizable number of Starmer loyalists on the body who are keen to avoid any potential leadership challenge.

The Labour party machine is said to have mobilised following the announcement of the MP's planned resignation, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the substantial expense and electoral danger of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Last year, he caused consternation in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had urged him to stand for the Labour leadership.

It has long been believed that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to potentially stand for the Labour leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, allies of the Mayor have cautioned against overstating the level of any scheming, stating he is passionate about his current role and would solely return Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Political Landscape and Poll Ratings

Against a backdrop of opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only senior Labour figure with consistently positive ratings with the public.

Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the byelection against challenges from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all before any potential leadership challenge.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

High-ranking Labour sources have said that a "Block Burnham" operation is already under way, with the party's organisation being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally commented that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of potential leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

Figures on the committee have allegedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated £500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.

A number of insiders also shared concerns about Reform UK potentially win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.

Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. There is also speculation the committee could enforce an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

Yet, a supporter counselled against presuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.

The unions hold a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently remaining quiet, insiders indicated they would be opposed to anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The constituency in question holds a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform is expected to mount a significant challenge, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from independent candidates.

If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the backbenches.

The resigning MP confirmed he was resigning due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He also remains under a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his membership in an inappropriate online group.